THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE POLICY CHANGES ON GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY AND SOUTH CAROLINA AGRICULTURE

Introduction: International trade could substantially affect food availability. However, hunger and food insecurity continue to be a challenge. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2013) estimates that over 800 million people are food insecure. Food shortages in developing countries may influence global and regional food security and impact local agriculture in the United States.The problem. The world population will grow from 6.3 billion to 9 billion by 2050 according to United Nations (United Nations, June 13, 2013). Food security situation is different across most nations/regions and even different in parts of the state of South Carolina. Limitations in farming technology, arable land, and limited water for farming will cause food production to grow much slower than food demand (Koo and Taylor, 2015). This imbalance may cause sharp increase in food prices and malnutrition, both globally and locally. This food shortage may have significant effects on South Carolina (S.C.) agriculture and accelerate food insecurity in the region. Of related issue are the impact of bilateral and multilateral trade treaties on regional food security in South Carolina and U.S. Southeast that includes Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.Food security and trade are complex issues faced by communities. The public will be made aware of factors affecting food security both locally and globally. The impact of the international trade agreements on state agricultural exports and food security will be known to the public. The study will identify and analyze factors affecting S.C. most often exported crops and discuss the impacts of major regional economic integrations on the state farm exports. The results will show major foreign destination markets of U.S. and S.C. agricultural products. This material is a public value and will be beneficial to agricultural producers, policy makers, farmers and agribusiness leaders and the public at large.The Solution method has four components. The method will be used to collect, analyze, and evaluate data to produce results. First, global and regional food security simulation models are developed and used to forecast food security indicators for the world, the U.S. , and South Carolina in the next three decades. We will specify and estimate a system of demand and supply of food security indicators in term of calories. A difference between projected demand and projected supplies will show regional food shortages in developing countries and possible impact on local food price inflation and food security. Second, a system of dynamic models of food security indicators will be used to identify factors affecting food security in U.S., S.C. and the Southeast region. This approach is used to identify impacts of agricultural productivity, free trade agreements on regional and local food security. Third, S.C. Representative Farm models are used to evaluate the impact of food security on S.C. agriculture with focus on the impacts of food security on net farm income by farm size category from small, medium to large farm sizes. Fourth, a system of dynamic panel gravity models and panel probit equations are used to identify the effects of international free trade agreements (FTAs) on S.C. agriculture and food security. The extent of trade creation, diversion or openness of FTAs will be evaluated and known to farm producers, exporters, and other stakeholders.The innovative methodology of simulation and dynamic panel models for state /regional studies will be a new research tool in trade and food security studies. To our knowledge, this is the first study that uses the methodology to address trade and food security issues for S.C. agriculture and will set a precedent for future regional /state research agendas.The goal that will be achieved by the above methodology is to determine the impact of international trade policy changes on global food security and S.C. agriculture. An assessment of food security for S.C., the U.S. and the world for the next three decades will be made. Possible implications of food shortages abroad on U.S. and regional food prices and S.C. agriculture will be determined. The results are useful to farmers, local communities and even the USDA officials. The method will be used to identify the determinants of food security and the extent to which agricultural productivity and free trade agreement such as NAFTA affect food security in SC and the Southeast region. We provide some answers to the questions: Are free trade agreements (such as NAFTA, EU, ASEAN OR MERCOSUR) beneficial to the U.S. and South Carolina agricultural production, Exports, and Trade? The results will highlight the extents of trade creation, diversion or openness impacts of the agreements on state agricultural exports and any general trade benefits from the free trade agreements.Results, Impacts, and Benefits: This project will provide assessment of food security for the SC, The U.S. and the world for the next three decades. The determinants of food security in SC and the Southeast region will be determined. The Impact of FTAs on SC agriculture will be evaluated and SC farmers are apprised of the food security impact on farm income. State-level analysis of FTAs impacts on state agricultural exports and trade will be available.The benefits to SCSU: This project is consistent with the mission of the SCSU as an 1890 Institution committed to rural development and the enhancement of rural life and small communities in South Carolina. The results will benefit the 1890 Program and the School of Business. The existing repository of trade data will be updated with project results and will show research of impact and serve to support future trade research studies at SCSU. The results fulfil the new AACSB requirement that projects show impact. We provide public access to information via the project updated website.Trade and food security are issues faced by small farmers and rural small communities. This proposal advances SCSU image in the community in SC and the nation. Publications of results in professional journals will enhance SCSU reputation. Therefore, the project results will be beneficial to not only farmers, USDA and trade officials but also to the public at large.