Project 16 - Emissions Modelling

Today, aircraft emissions that impact air quality represent a relatively small contribution to overall regional emissions. With a projected 2-3 times growth in aviation transport sector over the next two decades, some aviation emissions are expected to increase. The National Vision for Aviation and Environment, which forms the basis for the environmental strategy of the Next Generation Air Transportation System, states that the significant environmental and health impacts of air quality caused by aviation emissions will be reduced in absolute terms notwithstanding the anticipated growth in aviation. In order to understand and evaluate the potential role of aviation emissions in air quality, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has initiated this research project through PARTNER. The main science objective of this project is to quantify the potential incremental contribution of aviation emissions to air quality though their interaction with the background air. Towards this objective, the project is developing and refining tools and analyses to model aviation emissions at multiple scales - from plume-scale (to model the exhaust of a single aircraft engine) to local-scale (in the vicinity of an airport to model multiple aircraft) to regional-scale (to model multiple airports over the continental United States) to study aviation impacts on air quality using state-of-the art modeling tools that incorporate one-atmosphere treatment for ozone, particulate matter and hazardous air pollutants. The research carried out under this project will exchange information with PARTNER projects on emissions and health impacts. The lessons learned under this project will help to develop methodology for air quality analysis to aid airport operators in preparing Environmental Assessment and Environmental Impact Statements in support of National Environmental Policy Act requirements, specifically using an integrated measurement and modeling approach. Additionally, this research project will help to consider potential tradeoffs amongst emissions, and to inform comprehensive policy analyses for aviation management that are being pursued under other PARTNER research projects.