Evaluating the impacts of sea level rise on migration and wellbeing in coastal communities

ABSTRACT
Climate change and extreme weather events pose a growing threat to the health and development of
vulnerable populations in the United States. Psychological distress from extreme storms often persists
for years, air pollution from wildfires increases the risk of adverse birth outcomes, and floods spread
contaminants in land and water. While the threats from climate change to wellbeing are clear, research
has predominantly focused on the effects of extreme events, rather than how the “new normal” under
climate change can cause frequent disruptions and long-term stress for households and communities.
For many coastal communities, sea level rise is creating a new normal with routine flooding from
monthly high tides and rain. While those floods are not as catastrophic as hurricanes, their near-certain
occurrence causes different problems – and potentially leads to different responses – than low-
probability hurricane strikes. Understanding the impacts of chronic stresses from climate change, alone
and in combination with acute disasters, is necessary for enabling effective adaptation. This K01 Award
proposal will advance our understanding of the impacts of chronic and acute coastal flooding on
migration and stress. By building on my expertise in climate exposures and impacts, it will accelerate
my progress towards my career goal of becoming an independent researcher at the intersection of
climate change and population science. I will train in demographic theory and methods, conduct guided
readings with my mentors on measurement of psychosocial and physical health, and develop survey
design and analysis skills. Then, I will apply those skills to study the interactions between flooding,
migration, and health in coastal communities in the US. My research aims are: 1) to characterize the
relationship between flood experience and in- and out-migration, 2) to analyze how health, economic
resources, and flood experience shape migration intentions, and 3) to assess the health and economic
wellbeing of movers and stayers. To achieve these aims, I will draw on two primary datasets: an
administrative dataset consisting of individual address histories for most adults in eight Atlantic coast
states, and a detailed household survey currently underway in four coastal North Carolina counties. My
mentor team, with expertise in environmental migration, survey methods, and health measurement, are
ideally suited to help me achieve my research and training goals. The outcomes of the research and
data collected in this study will form the basis for future R-level proposals to expand the geographic
scope of the household survey on the impacts of coastal flooding and to examine the health and
development impacts of sea level rise on children and young adults. Combined, the research and
training proposed here will enable me to apply my expertise in climate change adaptation to the
widespread and urgent challenge of climate impacts on health, migration, and human development.