Displace, Return, and Reconstruct: Population Movement and Resilience to Instability

Research Question: Existing research devotes most of its attention to explaining how conflict produces forced displacement and which countries receive refugees. We advance understanding of the consequences of displacement by answering two major research questions: (1) What factors influence displaced personsÕ decisions regarding returning home, resettling within their home country, or remaining displaced? (2) What are the consequences of patterns of return and resettlement on the resiliency of displaced personsÕ destinations to the occurrence of violent instability? Proposed Method: Existing approaches assume that displaced persons can accurately assess the costs and benefits associated with settlement in various locations. We assume the displaced operate with little reliable information, creating space for new theory about their decision-making. Local elites in potential destinations often have incentives to make false promises to treat displaced persons well. The displaced respond by searching for credible commitments of good treatment, and our theory identifies the specific conditions which make such promises credible. Displaced personsÕ preferences are not static or uniform; their experience with violence shapes perceptions of salient identity groups. Victimization by members of outgroups reduces willingness to collaborate with and co-locate with outgroups. Displaced persons are also frequently victimized by members of their ingroup, and this increases their willingness to settle in areas with sizable outgroup populations and encourages cross-group collaboration in the reconstruction process. A common conclusion is that resettlement and return destabilizes locations and produces violent instability. The relationship between conflict-induced population change and violent instability is much more contingent, depending on displaced personsÕ wartime experience, the size and rate of return and resettlement, and a locationÕs ethnoreligious composition and civil society. We assess hypotheses with data collected from field and survey experiments and event and spatial data. Our team includes researchers with expertise in forced displacement, conflict dynamics, political psychology, experimental and observational research design, and geospatial analysis and remote sensing. Anticipated Outcomes: The project will advance understanding of the relationships between forced displacement, reconstruction, and violent instability. By grounding our theory in micro-foundations at the individual level and carefully considering the strategic and information environment in which displaced persons operate, we move beyond the consideration of ÒpushÓ and ÒpullÓ factors that dominate research in this area. The use of multiple types of dataÑranging from individual to the cityÑallows us to draw conclusions about the entire cycle of displacement, return or resettlement, and violent instability. The project provides a comprehensive understanding of civilian displacement, resettlement, and return and their consequences for stability and peace-building. Conceiving of these population dynamics as a system with component parts allows the science proposed here to move beyond current piecemeal perspectives on displacement and to understand the inter-related phenomena and their consequences. Implications: Better understanding of the drivers of return and resettlement and their consequences for stability will advance knowledge of the resilience of individuals, local communities, and ultimately countries to armed conflict. Knowing where populations will return or resettle, and the risks they pose for and political violence, will inform better policy choices on the location and timing of both reconstruction and humanitarian aid programs, the deployment of peacekeeping forces, and where military aid and intelligence assets should be targeted in order to head off the resurrection of insurgent threats.