Collaborative Research: Mitigating Emergent System Behavior through System Evolvability

The research objective of this collaborative project is to discover the principles governing the evolvability of complex engineered systems (CES) and understand how service-phase evolution can be used to reduce negative emergent behavior in the face of unforeseen future needs. While providing essential benefits to society, complex systems are unusually challenging to design because they have (i) elaborate internal interactions, (ii) long development times, (iii) lifecycles associated with extended service windows, and (iv) exhibit unanticipated emergent behavior. To address these challenges, this research project will begin by conducting empirical studies to understand how existing CES have evolved in-service in response to emergent needs. These studies will be used to draw insights about why certain CES are more effective at evolving than others. Different measures and models of evolvability will be then be explored and validated to guide designers in manipulating the evolution of CES. Finally, this project will explore how information about service-phase evolution can be integrated into a value model, and how different evolution strategies impact overall system value.

If successful, this work will begin to address a recurring theme from recent CES workshops highlighting the need to control and capitalize on system evolvability. Results from this project will significantly advance understanding of the relationship between system design and the tendency for systems to mitigate emergent behavior through evolution by identifying and cataloging useful principles that can be accessed by practicing engineers. By exploring metrics to characterize system evolvability, this research will facilitate the synthesis of information from various design tools to describe system capabilities and quantify the impact provided by various evolution possibilities. Linking these insights to value-driven design will study the relationship between evolvability and system value while furthering the use and validation of this design approach. Lessons learned and contributions of this work will be disseminated through publications, internet-available design camp teaching modules, interactions with industry supports, and at conferences. Finally, student involvement through summer design camps at both NCSU and BYU campuses will grant first-hand experience in system design and bring together students of diverse backgrounds and thinking.