A Modelling and Empirical Study of the Climate of the Lake Victoria Basin of Eastern Africa

The project aims to study the dry-wet-dry-wet Lake Victoria Basin Wave Structure (LVB-WS) in the distribution of rainfall across the central region of East Africa. This is the most dominant feature of the climate over Lake Victoria basin (LVB). Very few studies have previously been devoted to investigate the detailed climatology and interannual variability, the response to climate change and the causes of this climatic feature.

The investigators will address this knowledge gap to perform the following complementally research activities:

(i) LVB-WS Climatology & interannual variability: Produce improved and detailed description of the climatology and interannual variability of the LVB-WS using a combination of analyses based on in-situ and satellite data sets;

(ii) Response of the LVB-WS to climate change: Perform and analyse the community Regional Climate Model-version 3 coupled to the Princeton Ocean Model (RegCM3-POM) regional climate model simulations over LVB under present and future climate scenarios to infer climate change projections of the LVB-WS and understand the relative role of the physical processes responsible for the projected changes;

(iii) Physical mechanisms responsible for the development & evolution of the LVB-WS: Conduct mechanistic numerical simulations based on the regional RegCM3-POM lake-atmosphere coupled model to determine the causes of the LVB-WS. These mechanisms include the role of regional mountain ridges, the role of the dominant climatic modes of circulation and thermodynamics of Lake Victoria, and climatic effects associated with changes in the large-scale background circulation of the regional climate system.

Broader impacts of the proposed research are educational and in the potential to advance our knowledge and understanding of the coupled variability of Lake Victoria hydrodynamics and the basin-wide climate. The project will contribute to several high profile climate programs and activities related to LVB such as the international effort CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) and the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) assessment. Collaboration with African climate centers and other international organizations will promote improvement of climate information products to inform policy decisions in the LVB region.